How about an era of small government?

Citizens in Massachusetts are trying to get the state income tax there repealed and replaced by nothing:

"In light of stagnant private sector wages and thousands of jobs leaving Massachusetts, which is better for Massachusetts workers: keep the state income tax — or end it?
Please note that both ballot choices spend $47 billion in Massachusetts.
Voting “no” means that the Massachusetts state government decides how and where to spend the whole $47 billion.
Voting “yes” means that the Massachusetts state government decides how and where to spend $35 billion. And 3,400,000 workers and taxpayers each decide how and where to spend their $3,700 share of the other $12 billion."

With this going on just as the feds want American taxpayers to clean up their regulatory nightmare with our $700 billion, Kentuckians might want to think again about the $27 billion unfunded public employee benefits we have to deal with.

Do we really want to keep feeding our Kentucky politicians, hoping that their promises to straighten up their act really soon will someday be true?

Free marketeer pleads not guilty in meltdown

Economist Steven Horwitz explains very clearly in "An Open Letter to my Friends on the Left" that too much government -- and specifically too much collusion between business and government -- caused the mortgage problems, rather than too little government:

"I know, my friends, that you are concerned about corporate power. So am I. So are many of my free-market economist colleagues. We simply believe, and we think history is on our side, that the best check against corporate power is the competitve marketplace and the power of the consumer dollar (framed, of course, by legal prohibitions on force and fraud). Competition plays mean, nasty corporations off against each other in a contest to serve us. Yes, they still have power, but its negative effects are lessened. It is when corporations can use the state to rig the rules in their favor that the negative effects of their power become magnified, precisely because it has the force of the state behind it. The current mess shows this as well as anything ever has, once you realize just what a large role the state played. If you really want to reduce the power of corporations, don't give them access to the state by expanding the state's regulatory powers. That's precisely what they want, as the current battle over the $700 billion booty amply demonstrates."

It's a terrific essay. Please read the whole thing here.

Transparency effort advancing (still)

Continuing to push Frankfort to post state spending on the internet has been a frustratingly slow process for such a simple, no-brainer reform.

The E-Transparency Task Force meets Thursday, October 2, at 10 AM in room 171 of the Capitol Annex.

Showing taxpayers what is happening to their money in greater detail is the inevitable result of this song and dance. The only questions remaining when the resistance to this breaks will be "what took so long?" and "why don't you expand the information available to us?"

If this is torture, chain me to the wall

A mere "Republican" group would hesitate before naming someone the best-voting member of the 2008 Senate one week and then, only two weeks later, rake her over the coals for repeating big-spender talking points.

But the Kentucky Club for Growth is way too principled to play that old game:

"In true liberal logic, they posit that raising his salary to prevent him from retiring saves the state from paying his pension plus a new salary to a new director. This time-limited truth has been parroted by legislative leadership like Senate President Pro-tem Katie Stine."

Better not mess around when the Kentucky Club for Growth is on the job.

Is this "sound fiscal stewardship?"

Speaker Jody Richards is having a ball campaigning for a pay cut for one legislative employee, as he plays a starring role in overspending that imperils the state.

One small but telling example is the Gatton Academy for Mathematics and Science on the campus of Western Kentucky University. Slipped into the budget in 2006, the program operated as an illegal charter school for a year. Thanks to a 2008 law, it is now legal and serving 120 high school students a year from across the state at a cost to taxpayers of more than $20,000 per student.

The Gatton Academy comes up now because the Interim Joint Education Committee is going to spend the day at the school on October 13 getting the grand tour.

I don't doubt for a second that this is a fabulous program, but it could easily be duplicated across the state with local students who live at home for much, much less money. That would be more fair and make more sense than just having this one program in Richards' district.

What we are talking about here is charter schools. The idea of a charter school is basically no teachers union, less bureaucracy, and more accountability. In Kentucky, of course, charter schools are illegal.

More on “Finding the Right Reason for KCTCS Enrollment Drop”

I blogged on this year’s drop in enrollment in the Kentucky Community and Technical College System last Wednesday, pointing out that some very good reasons other than funding might explain the drop.

Two days after my blog, Mark Hebert caught up with the news about the enrollment drop with an article that merely postulated the drop in enrollment was all due to state funding below what was asked coupled with a refusal to approve a large tuition hike. No alternate explanations were discussed.

Today, the Herald-Leader joined the discussion, disputing the KCTCS claim that the problems are all due to inadequate funding. But, this article primarily focuses on funding. Again, alternative possibilities are not discussed.

The KCTCS, Mr. Hebert and even the Herald-Leader all make an assumption – that students coming from Kentucky’s P to 12 school system are adequately prepared to succeed in postsecondary education. That’s a very incorrect assumption.

Only a small minority of Kentucky’s students score well enough on the ACT to meet the benchmark scores that signal adequate preparation for follow-on schooling after high school. Among the 2008 graduates in Kentucky who took the ACT and might have gone on to postsecondary education, only 19 percent met the benchmark scores in all four academic areas tested. Virtually all of that limited number would go to four-year universities.

Thus, ACT scores for virtually all the potential community college applicants indicated these students could expect some pretty tough challenges in any postsecondary school.

In fact, because Kentucky now determines college remedial course requirements based on ACT scores, these students actually knew before high school graduation that they would need to take remedial courses to have any chance of completing a postsecondary education.

Given the facts that more kids are getting better information about their real readiness for college, it may just be that the drop in KCTCS enrollment is due to more kids realizing that they didn’t get an adequate preparation in the P to 12 school system and that they will face the extra expense of remedial courses in order to succeed, even in two-year colleges. Maybe more of these kids are simply making a more informed decision not to load up a lot of debt in what at best might be a gamble at getting a postsecondary diploma or degree.

It’s an alternate possibility that all Kentuckians need to discuss, because with our rapidly more technical society, the drop in postsecondary enrollment is not a good thing for anyone in this state.

Who is going to deleverage Kentucky?

While so much attention has been centered on how much money American taxpayers are going to borrow to bail out bad mortgage loans, a much quieter meltdown in municipal bonds looms as a fresh, new crisis for Frankfort.

The 2009-10 state budget authorized more than $1.5 billion in new bonded debt for Frankfort and it will be interesting in the current environment to find out how much of that has already been issued. The reality is that we are out of the debt accumulation business for a while.

Spending prioritization, which has been largely avoided over decades of rapidly increasing state budgets, is about to be forced on our state government.

Gov. Steve Beshear's recent scheme to expand entitlement spending on top of his cigarette tax increase lobbying make little sense now. His casino gambling plan may see renewed interest, but the experience of other states strongly suggests finding a way to limit increased entitlement spending that goes with the casinos needs to be worked out first.

Real spending cuts can't wait. Ending overpaying for school building projects and overpaying for medical services need to be seriously discussed by public servants who can put the taxpayers ahead of special-interest groups.

Scientific Education Research in Short Supply

The New York Times recently reported on a “New Effort Aims to Test Theories of Education,” which adds to the growing list of groups and organizations who are astounded at the lack of decent research on what works in education.

Others who have pointed to the deplorable lack of decent research on education include Arthur Levine, past president of Columbia Teachers College, who has written extensively about the very poor quality of research informing the training of teachers and the equally weak training that most people engaged in education research have been getting.

Even the US Department of Education understands the seriousness of the situation, and this governmental agency formed the What Works Clearinghouse six years ago to assemble reports on various curriculum programs and other items that meet minimal tests of scientific rigor.

Sadly, most policy-making educators in Kentucky don’t seem to be paying attention. Kentucky’s educators still opt for curriculum programs that haven’t a single, quality report in the What Works Clearinghouse that shows they work. However, you can go into the clearinghouse and see for yourself if your school’s current math or reading program has any decent research behind it. If you are having problems finding information on the programs your school uses, give us a shout. We’d like to know who is and isn’t using credible teaching programs in Kentucky.

Just about ready to get the pension crisis?

The Louisville Courier Journal continues to miss the point of the anger caused by the big raise for the state legislature's Executive Director Bobby Sherman.

"The reason the issue came up is that the General Assembly closed the retirement window, which meant that the 56-year-old Mr. Sherman would either have to leave or lose $1,348 per month in retirement benefits, forever."
"If he had given up his post, the state would have had to pay not only some 109,000 per year in retirement for him but a salary of at least $132,840 for his successor. That's $241,840. Instead, Mr. Sherman stayed at a new salary of $195,000..."

It takes a special kind of blindness to miss that the fat, taxpayer-guaranteed pension is a big part of the problem. A state that can't afford to pay the salaries it pays or to properly fund the retirement system that pays people who are no longer working, has no business jacking up salaries even more.

And the idea that a replacement for Mr. Sherman would cost at least as much as he does is the clearest indicator that we haven't gotten serious about our fiscal situation.

But the Courier Journal being the Courier Journal, they weren't satisfied to be just a little histrionic and misleading. They had to throw in this:

"Most of the outcry has come from politicians with self-serving reasons to sound upset. If only they were as indignant about the revenue crisis and the cuts it has necessitated."

If you are keeping score at home, that's the revenue crisis that isn't a revenue crisis and the necessitated cuts that still left us overspending by $1.5 billion.

And all this makes it even less likely we will be able to seriously address our $27 billion public employee benefits underfunding.

Rip Van Richards' perspective problem

House Speaker Jody Richards pre-filed House Joint Resolution 5 today along with co-sponsor Rep. Brent Yonts in an effort to take away LRC Executive Director Bobby Sherman's fat raise he got Wednesday.

While I can appreciate the desire to not give out the raise and although the political opportunity is certainly a no-lose proposition for Richards, it's a little hard to understand how he can muster so much outrage for this issue after he slept through the growing public employee benefits crisis for more than two decades:

"Whereas, the current dire economic situation in the Commonwealth and in our nation demands that legislatures take drastic measures to ensure sound fiscal stewardship; and"

"Whereas, in these unprecedented financial times, all public servants, including teachers, General Assembly members, and state and local employees are struggling with low salary increases and facing economic hardships; and"

"WHEREAS, it would be egregious to award one employee a 47 percent pay increase while other employees are limited to one percent or less by the biennial budget;"

Speaker Richards credibility on "sound fiscal stewardship" isn't so hot right about now. And I'm sure you noticed the bit about "General Assembly members" who are, according to Richards, "struggling with low salary increases and facing economic hardships."

Boo-hoo, Jody.

Teacher Incentive Pay – Paying Off – Elsewhere

While Kentucky’s teachers continue to stonewall attempts to provide any sort of merit pay for better performance, the City of Cincinnati’s school system has moved beyond such closed-minded thinking with a new program that already shows that it makes a difference.

One clue to how Cincinnati did it – teachers there are not represented by a local affiliate of the National Education Association, which dominates here in Kentucky. Instead, Cincinnati’s teachers are represented by the much more forward looking American Federation of Teachers.

It remains to be seen if the Kentucky Education Association will be “teachable” on this subject.

Losing More Sets of Eyes on Frankfort

Art Jestor and Ravia Ismail, the former education reporters at the Lexington Herald-Leader, are both out the door for the final time at the newspaper.

Jestor and Ismail did the lion’s share of all education reporting at the newspaper. Whether or not you liked their coverage, they provided two more sets of informed eyes watching what was happening to 60 cents out of every dollar the taxpayers sent to Frankfort. They also covered more issues and events than any blogger so far has handled alone, providing an important set of inputs to this and other education-oriented blogs in the state.

The departure of these two reporters follows the total collapse last year of the Kentucky Post, an event which removed still more sets of eyes watching out for the public’s ability to know what was going on in Kentucky education.

Here are some things to consider.

Art Jestor informed me that at one time, the Herald-Leader had as many as six staffers covering the education scene. Will even one reporter wind up with this as a primary duty now that Jestor and Ismail have left? In other words, will whoever now covers education at the Herald-Leader be able to devote full concentration on the rather complex issues involved (for example, understanding the big differences between ACT scores for all 11th graders versus scores only for students who graduate, which a Herald-Leader pool reporter recently didn’t).

Will the amount of education coverage further decline at the Herald-Leader?

Will the articles seek out full comments from people with varied viewpoints or be more limited in scope because the reporter hasn't enough time to do full research?

If the paper abdicates its role as a major education news source, can/will the work be picked up by Web-based resources such as this blog?

And, what will be the long-term impacts on the citizens’ ability to monitor and participate in the shaping of informed policy in Kentucky?

Can we afford lavish benefits for part-timers?

A letter to the editor in a small New Jersey town provides a money-saving idea that could help out in Kentucky. The writer, chairman of Democrats for Brick, suggests doing away with taxpayer-provided healthcare benefits for part-time government employees.

"These are difficult economic times for all of us, and we do agree that sacrifices must be made and leadership must come from the top. It behooves elected officials everywhere to demonstrate their leadership in saving money wherever they can, which is why we are calling for the governing body of Brick to eliminate taxpayer-paid medical benefits for all elected officials by passing an ordinance that would not allow any part-time employee, appointed official or any elected officials to receive health benefits paid for by the taxpayers."

How many children could we feed, clothe, and educate with the money taxpayers spend to buy rich health insurance plans for our political class?

One very badly timed scheme

Senate President David Williams can't be surprised by the uproar caused by his effort to lard up LRC Executive Director Bobby Sherman, during a week in which the world's attention is focused on insiders taking the money and running.

And now it seems the move may result in Williams making Speaker Jody Richards look smart and taxpayer-centered by comparison.

Quod erat demonstrandum

It's the new political small talk: you're too stupid to disagree with me.

From Sen. Hillary Clinton:

"We should also put in place a temporary moratorium on foreclosures and freeze rate hikes in adjustable-rate mortgages. We've got to stem the tide of failing mortgages and give the markets time to recover."

"The time for ideological, partisan arguments against these actions is over."

Of all the false choices, we are now being told we have to bail out bankers who can't do banking or homeowners who can't do homeownership, or both. And if we disagree we are ideological and partisan?

Anyway, it's the end of the world, isn't it? Perhaps not.

Killing two higher ed birds with one stone

Kentucky's foray into pre-paid tuition programs has been an unmitigated disaster costing the state untold millions of dollars. The main problem has been that shortfalls in the KAPT program from rising tuition and poor investment returns fell to state taxpayers for bailing out.

Texas has a solution. The Texas Tuition Promise Fund started up September 1 with a promise that tuition units purchased over time will be honored by state schools and that the colleges and universities will be responsible for making up any shortfalls.

Sounds like a terrific way to keep down higher education costs. I'm not aware of any other state doing this.

Bobby Sherman's personal $63,000 bailout

Senate President David Williams has been a strong voice of reason for public employee pension reform, so it is more than a little frustrating today to see him justify a huge raise to keep the LRC Director from retiring.

How much will that add to our $27 billion unfunded pension liability and the $1.5 billion in new debt in the current budget, President Williams?

(CLARIFICATION: Apparently, Mr. Sherman signed a contract specifying that his pension will be exactly the same as if he had retired now.)

Grover says no bailout

Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform has written a letter to Congress opposing the bank bailout. Here are a couple of excerpts:

"The bailout plan creates a horrible public policy precedent. How is the government supposed to say, “no” to the next ailing industry that comes to Washington with its hand out? Over time, the government’s calming of Schumpeter’s creative gales will result in a poorer America more dependent on the state. For all these reasons, you should oppose the bailout plan."

"Congressional Democrats are seeking to use the opportunity of this bailout bill to reward their friends in labor unions and left wing political activism. Less than ninety days ago, Congress gave billions of dollars to ACORN. Congressional Democrats were able to funnel money to left-wing organizers like ACORN as a condition of passing the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bailout. President Bush cannot make that same mistake twice. He should commit to veto any package which gives greater resources to groups such as ACORN."

And here is a link to the whole thing. Give 'em hell, Grover.

Finding the Right Reason for KCTCS Enrollment Drop

In “KCTCS enrollment decreases, STATE BUDGET CUTS ARE CITED” the state’s community and technical college system blames money shortages for a drop in enrollment this year.

Perhaps.

However, the fact that the news article reports enrollment is actually up at some campuses makes one wonder if something else might actually be going on.

For example, we know the youth unemployment rate in Kentucky is now the worst it has ever been since KERA began. So a lot of our 16 to 19 year olds are not prepared for the world of work.

Maybe, because the community college system, like businesses that hire direct from high school, draws from lower achieving students, the drop might be due to more kids at the bottom of the performance range being inadequately prepared to take on higher education and being smart enough to not run up a lot of debt just to prove it.

Just a speculation to start a conversation.

The GOP was in Minnesota this month, right?

Kentucky delegate to the Republican National Convention Steve Manning has this little detail from the party's own platform:

Nice catch, Steve. Thanks!

There must be a pony in here someplace

The Bluegrass Institute hears from our army of critics that all we ever do is complain. The word "solutions" is part of your name, they say, but you mostly just gripe about what you don't like and attack, attack, attack.

While we see promotion of ideas like government spending transparency, public employee benefits reform, education reform, healthcare reform, and better labor policies as positive steps the state could -- but won't -- take, we will admit to sounding -- and feeling -- like grouchy old bears sometimes.

But the evidence (click this link) keeps telling us we are right. In a sense, reality keeps feeding the bears.

"If Frankfort’s policymakers want to see that change, they can."

"They could begin by heeding the advice of Arthur Laffer, a member of President Ronald Reagan’s Economic Policy Advisory Board, who wrote in the foreword of the “Economic Freedom Index” that higher migration rates for economically free states “confirms that states that cut their marginal tax rates, enact right-to-work legislation, and limit frivolous jury awards see an influx of capital, people and businesses.”

At the Institute, we see our role as that of a family member doing an intervention. Until we can get the people who control our state to see the error of their ways, we can't stop trying. We love them, and the state we share, too much. Attacking us personally, as our ideological opponents seem to really enjoy doing, just tells us we are doing it right.

Another Education Fad Confronted by Reality

Sending school kids to algebra classes regardless of whether they get math basics in the earlier grades just doesn’t work.

The kids either get low grades or wind up in an algebra-in-name-only sham.

Will Beshear save us by taxing Mountain Dew?

Before the presidential race and the nationalization of the banking industry distracted from the fact that we weren't supposed to be talking about rising state revenues in Kentucky, Gov. Steve Beshear was talking about raising cigarette taxes.

In Frankfort earlier this year, some lawmakers were talking about the evils of Mountain Dew. Might taxing that evil brew be part of Beshear's next tax-raising scheme?

Which Schools Are Really Struggling? How Badly?

The Herald-Leader posted “Kentucky middle schools struggle to keep pace” today with a disappointing analysis of the recent CATS testing.

The title of the piece – assuming CATS scores were credible – is off target. Actually, the CATS shows the state’s high schools are doing notably worse than the middle schools. But, you have to read down 13 paragraphs before you learn that from this article.

The Herald-Leader claims the statewide CATS elementary school math score was 97. Actually, according to the statewide Kentucky Performance Report (available by clicking on the KPR Report link on this page), it was 96.9, rounded to the same level as the reported middle school score in the newspaper of 84.5. But, the true middle school score statewide was really 85.0, which is a larger rounding error.

Still, the really big problem concerns high schools. The high school math score was only 67.7 in that same Kentucky Performance Report (somehow the Herald-Leader reports it as 67.4), which certainly blows a hole in the Herald-Leader’s headline’s implication that middle schools have the major problems. If you trust CATS, middle school performance is far closer to the elementary school performance than the high schools are to the middle schools.

Of course, the credibility of all the CATS “stuff” starts to fall apart if you look at other recent test results from the federally operated National Assessment of Educational Progress. In the national assessment, Kentucky’s middle school performance isn’t much different from the elementary schools, and both do a whole lot worse than CATS shows.

For example, in 2007 Kentucky’s NAEP proficiency rates for math were 31 percent for our fourth graders, which was 8 points below the national average. The NAEP showed math proficiency of 27 percent for our eighth graders, however, which was 4 points behind the national average. The proficiency spread from grade four to grade eight was only 4 points.

Now, consider what the CATS showed. The CATS in 2007 reported math proficiency rates of 60 percent for fourth graders and 49 percent for our eighth graders, clearly a claim of much better performance for both school levels than NAEP showed with and a much larger proficiency rate spread of 11 points between elementary and middle schools.

Anyway, I wonder who at the Herald-Leader has an axe to grind against the middle schools?

And, why does the Herald-Leader trust CATS to tell us about our school problems?

Task Force Asks for Public Input

As mentioned in our previous post about the Kentucky Department of Education’s “CATS Task Force,” the following call for input has been issued. It contains contact and mail address information for you to submit your comments and concerns about CATS to the task force.

Parents in particular can supply some important information that isn’t specifically listed below. If your child got CATS scores that differ greatly from his or her school grades or performance on other tests like the EXPLORE, PLAN, and ACT tests, the task force needs to hear about this. We at the Bluegrass Institute would also appreciate hearing from you about these examples of questionable CATS scoring. My personal example, which occurred years ago under the old KIRIS assessment, involves our daughter’s outstanding writing performance versus the scores she got from the state assessment program. She won the PTA’s statewide writing contest as a ninth grader and had outstanding grades in English but only got an “Apprentice” score from the state’s writing assessment. Clearly, something wasn’t right, and it wasn’t with her grades, as her extremely high ACT score in English and her success in college later proved.

KDE Release Follows:


----------------------------------------------------------
INPUT SOUGHT FOR ASSESSMENT/ACCOUNTABILITY TASK FORCE

News Advisory 08-077 - September 22, 2008


(FRANKFORT, Ky.) – The members of the Task Force on Assessment and Accountability have issued a call for input from teachers, administrators, parents, businesspeople, elected officials, education advocacy groups and others who are interested in the state’s public school testing and accountability system.

The task force is focusing on a number of areas, including:

• on-demand writing/writing portfolios

• arts & humanities and practical living/vocational studies

• minor changes to the assessment system, including national comparisons, alternate assessments and the Kentucky Core Content Tests

formative/diagnostic assessments
assessments of student learning
standards (narrowing of curriculum)
longitudinal testing models
individual student focus
college readiness
analysis of Educational Planning and Assessment System (EPAS) technical programs
balance of student/school accountability
timeliness of results
end-of-course exams


Written comments on those areas (or others) are requested. Those may be sent to Lisa Gross, director of the Division of Communications, 6th Floor, 500 Mero St., Frankfort KY 40601; e-mail lisa.gross@education.ky.gov; fax (502) 564-3049.

The task force is charged with reviewing the Commonwealth Accountability Testing System (CATS) and providing a blueprint for the system’s progress in the future to ensure that the system meets the best interests of public school students. Members of the group include policymakers and experts in the field.

Education Commissioner Jon E. Draud asked statewide organizations, partner groups and leaders of the Kentucky Senate and House of Representatives to name members to the task force. The group will analyze individual components of CATS and determine the effectiveness of those in meeting the needs of students.

Riddle me this, Batman!

Great question this morning from former candidate for Kentucky Auditor of Public Accounts Linda Greenwell about the federal government nationalizing trainwrecks:

"Wonder why they voted to force us to invest in these failing companies but forbid us to willfully invest in stable companies of our choice using our Social Security money?"

Thanks Linda. These hurry-up bills usually wind up with nasty surprises for taxpayers. Sure would be nice to see compromise run the other way just once.

Are we all socialists now?

A common refrain on editorial pages this past week has been that free-market "zealots" have been the losers in the federal interventions of AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and whoever is next.

That's true, but certainly not because the free market has failed. I'm stunned and saddened that we have gone so far to show that, under certain circumstances, we are perfectly willing to abandon any pretense of capitalism.

Sen. Jim Bunning was right when he said "when I picked up my newspaper yesterday, I thought I woke up in France. But no, it turns out socialism is alive and well in America."

The Louisville Courier Journal picks up the drumbeat this morning, giving their best justification for an auto manufacturer bailout, a scheme that has simmering behind the scenes all week.

Said the CJ:

"In a sense, we're all Ford families around here, given the firm's 6,000 local employees and its $300 million metropolitan region payroll. We have special reason to look favorably at a sensibly hedged bet on American automakers' future."

As much as I appreciate the irony in seeing yet another bailout referred to as a "sensibly hedged bet," the unsettling part of this Orwellian verbiage is that it ignores the trainwreck we are setting up by combining our sudden disdain for all things laissez-faire with our long-term willful blindness to the growing crisis in unfunded employee benefits.

We shouldn't have to remind most people that the labor costs tied up in domestic automobiles have wrecked Detroit's competitiveness for a generation, but the CJ is hoping you didn't get the memo:

"It's true that Detroit has brought on many of its own problems. It was slow to move toward the kinds of vehicles that America needs, but that's partly because consumers were slow to demand them. Now it faces higher materials costs and gasoline prices, an economic slowdown and a fierce credit crunch."

Failing to build cars that run on corn is not what caused Detroit's problems. It's the loss of financial flexibility the firms bought themselves by promising retiree benefits they couldn't afford to deliver and stay competitive in a global marketplace.

Bailing them out is just delaying the inevitable at taxpayer expense.

Ponzi player pooh-poohs pension panic

Ron York is a police pay consultant who has been quoted in newspapers all over the country on public employee fringe benefits issues.

So when he says governments shouldn't pre-fund employee benefits and should instead switch to a 100% pay-as-you-go system of paying government retiree pension and healthcare benefits, people are listening.

Unfortunately for us, some of those people are probably in Kentucky.

York said:

"One of the most common statements made by politicians about government is:“We are leaving our children and grandchildren saddled with huge pension debts that will be impossible to pay.” First, let me respond to that statement. So what?"

York makes the case for ignoring mounting pension debts and paying them out of general funds only when they come due. That is pretty much how Kentucky has operated the last quarter-century. While everyone is casting blame for the banking industry's woes, the nearly $28 billion unfunded liability for Kentucky taxpayers is set to hit home hard within a decade.

Kentucky officials have, for the most part, limped feebly toward even starting to deal with this problem realistically. Media coverage has been limited and the results have been mixed -- see Lexington Herald Leader versus Louisville Courier Journal. The unpleasant fact remains: The mountain of long-term debt on the state employee benefits will soon roll up to our front door and need to be paid in large chunks.

And we don't have the money.

CATS Assessment and Accountability Task Force Meeting 3

First, my apologies for the length of this post. As this meeting got no coverage elsewhere, I believe our readers deserve to see this expanded discussion.

There wasn’t much consensus in the CATS Task Force, as it is commonly being called, during the group’s third meeting on September 18, 2008. In fact, the traditional news community voted on the likely importance of this group to Kentucky’s public education scene – by not even showing up – again.

Overall, agreement on writing is limited to a general acceptance that writing instruction is important and that writing portfolios are useful instructional tools. However, this group’s consensus quickly breaks down on the very important question of keeping writing portfolios in the state’s CATS school assessments. Opinions generally center in one of two very different camps.

One group believes that if the portfolio program is removed from CATS, then Kentucky’s teachers will stop teaching writing. This group firmly believes that only what gets assessed will be taught. The “Keep Them” group thinks the portfolio program mostly just suffers from administrative and management problems and only needs improvement in things like better instruction to teachers about how to manage this CATS element. Key spokespeople for this position include State Representative Harry Moberly and Marion County School Superintendent Roger Markum, who also represents the Kentucky Association of School Superintendents.

A second group believes that writing portfolios should be removed from CATS. The “Remove Them” group believes arcane rules intended to prevent teachers from giving students too much help on portfolios actually wind up inhibiting effective instruction. This group never the less believes that portfolios should remain in the instructional program. However, the group thinks teachers can be encouraged to do this by non-assessment programs such as audits. Key members of the “Remove Them” group include State Senator Dan Kelly and Kentucky Education Association President Sharron Oxendine.

Unfortunately, both groups argued more from beliefs and assertions than actual evidence during the meeting. Part of the reason was a very relevant report requested by Steve Stevens, head of the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce, at the previous task force meeting wasn’t presented, or even mentioned. Stevens wanted research into the fact that Tennessee outscored Kentucky for eighth grade writing on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in 2007. The Bluegrass Institute has written about this subject before, and we see Kentucky’s rather poor performance on NAEP writing as evidence that teachers in other states are teaching writing – much more effectively – without needing portfolios in their state accountability systems.

Certainly, the task force’s portfolio work will be incomplete without considering the remarkable fact that Tennessee outscored Kentucky for writing proficiency although Tennessee has no portfolios in its accountability program. In fact, our further investigation of the 2007 NAEP Grade Eight Writing Assessment shows that Kentucky only did statistically significantly better than just five states among the 45 states that participated. Kentucky was statistically significantly outscored for writing proficiency by 22 states. This provides compelling evidence that it isn’t essential to have writing portfolios in state assessments in order to have good writing programs.

Some other information presented at the meeting also raised questions about Kentucky’s accountability program with portfolios. Ken Draut, and associate commissioner at the KDE, discussed an audit of the accuracy of the 2006-07 writing portfolio scoring. The audit shows an old problem continues – portfolio scoring continues to be inflated compared to the on-demand writing samples that are collected during the CATS academic tests.

Inflation is particularly evident for the higher CATS portfolio scores of “Proficient” and “Distinguished.” Data presented by Draut showed that out of 588 portfolios that were originally graded with the top score of “Distinguished,” the audit found only 37, just six percent, actually deserved that top grade. Incredibly, out of the same original “Distinguished” score group of 588, 176, or 30 percent, should have received the much lower score of “Apprentice,” according to the auditors.

There was another important message hidden in the CATS writing data that Draut presented, and it didn’t make it into discussion, either. Across all school levels, the overall writing academic indexes and the portfolio scores increased from last year. However, the on-demand writing proficiency rates in 2007-08 for both elementary and middle schools actually dropped from the previous year. On-demand writing is assessed under test conditions during the CATS academic test periods. The results are scored by independent graders, unlike portfolio scoring that is done by teachers.

By the way, the audit situation provides a clue to an unspoken reason why some may be fiercely protecting keeping writing portfolios in the accountability program. Because portfolio scores are inflated, if portfolios are removed from CATS, the overall school accountability index scores will decline.

There are definitely people on the committee whose primary focus seems to be not doing much of anything to CATS before 2014, be it with portfolios or anything else. Though he was absent from the meeting due to illness, Commissioner of Education Jon Draud previously stated he doesn’t want to make many changes. At this third meeting of the task force, State Board of Education Chair Joe Brothers also raised concerns that making any significant changes to CATS now would require a new three-year cycle to develop new scoring targets for schools. These hold-the-line advocates argue that changes will make it harder for schools to meet their CATS goals in 2014. Left unsaid, however, was the really critical question – are the current CATS goals truly valid targets worth preserving for another six years?

While portfolios took up the lions’ share of the time, there was some discussion on another contentious CATS issue – assessment of arts and humanities. It was pointed out that the CATS arts and humanities assessment may actually be working to diminish instruction in the performing arts. The test questions apparently have degenerated into little more than an arts vocabulary test, but actual demonstrations of students playing instruments or showing off sculpture and paintings are totally absent from CATS. There seemed to be fairly widespread interest in a pilot program to change the CATS arts assessment, but issues of funding could be a significant impediment to a statewide implementation. Interestingly, no-one seemed concerned that changing the arts assessment might require a new three-year adjustment time to develop new scoring targets. That argument only came up during the portfolio debate, making me wonder if this is more of a smoke screen than a legitimate concern.

At the close of the meeting, discussion facilitator Dave Spence was unable to get any consensus beyond a universal desire for more information. Hopefully, that will include gathering information about NAEP writing in addition to other areas of interest. And, hopefully, the next meeting will be more data, rather than opinion, driven.

Finally, there was a request from the committee for all interested parties to submit comments and ideas to the committee. If the KDE sets this up in an orderly way, I’ll pass details on how to submit comments in a later post. Until then, you can always send this to the public affairs office at the KDE, and we would certainly appreciate receiving a copy of your thoughts, as well. I hope the popular press finally wakes up and broadcasts this request, as well. It would be unfortunate if many valid concerns about CATS go unheard simply because the informed members of the public didn’t know their input was requested.

When is 24,000 less than 8000?

People who think redistributing wealth is the primary function of government don't usually let little details get in their way. Sen. Joe Biden's slip late this week -- "We want to take money and put it back in the pocket of middle-class people," Biden said in an interview on ABC's "Good Morning America" -- may have been overwhelmed by the Bush Administration's welfare for banks scheme, but in terms of sheer hubris, they have nothing on small towns in Kentucky who have a nifty little way of lying about their population size in order to enact and keep a certain restaurant tax. Here is one example:

"Elizabethtown still classifies itself as a fourth-class city, making it technically eligible for a restaurant tax. According to the population-based city class system, a fourth-class city has a population of less than 8,000. Opponents of the restaurant tax point out that Elizabethtown’s population exceeded 20,000 in 1997, and had a population of 22,452 in the 2000 U.S. Census. Cities with a population of 20,000 to 99,999 are second-class cities per the population-based class system. Second-class cities are not authorized by Kentucky law to enact a restaurant tax. Elizabethtown’s population is now well over 24,000."

While it is debatable if anything can stop the pick-pocketing on the federal level, stopping such blatant fraud in our small towns is a matter of pulling together a much smaller number of people. With social networking web sites gaining significantly in popularity and the movement for government transparency on the internet picking up steam, motivated Kentuckians have at their disposal some powerful tools to change the status quo.

Kentucky universities can't stay in shadows

In the wake of the University of Louisville's major financial mismanagement scandal, it only makes sense that the state's colleges and universities should be made to dance in the spending transparency parade.

The time has passed for just asking nicely.

Look, if the University of Illinois can start to show the world where their money is going, can University of Kentucky, University of Louisville, and Western Kentucky University possibly make a reasonable case for continuing to operate under the cover of darkness?

Don't tell Jack Conway about this

Kentuckians are fortunate that Hurricane Ike didn't cause enough of a gasoline supply disruption to result in more than just a few cases of stations running out or rationing supplies.

But the politicians have only been emboldened to "get tough" on petroleum suppliers because their policies didn't lead to disaster.

As soon as Attorney General Jack Conway finds out the Mississippi AG wants to start triggering perpetual price gouging enforcement that we tried to avoid by passing limits on such official power in 2006, we will make it more likely that next time around could result in real pain at the pump.

Will Lexington's exodus be orderly?

Dr. David Duncan is already suing the city of Lexington for improperly giving taxpayer-provided benefits to illegal aliens. Now he is asking local advocates to help undocumented people leave in an orderly fashion before federal enforcement efforts cause a panic:

"Thousands of unemployed illegal alien families with no money, no housing, no heat, no food, and no benefits will be stranded. They can't take Greyhound. Then what? Charter buses? Will you organize that?"

"You have a moral and ethical responsibility to anticipate these hardships and construct an orderly exodus of entire illegal alien families from Lexington back to their countries of origin for the protection of all concerned and you have the community responsibility to do it now! "

"As we approach the 2010 Games the presence of federal law enforcement personnel will increase. Job opportunities will dramatically reduce. The KY Horse Park is already under notice not to hire workers illegally. Housing will be dead-ended as landlords look to profit from the Games. Should the Writ of Mandamus prevail, only verified valid citizens will receive health care, housing, food stamps, and welfare benefits. Drivers licenses, auto insurance, vehicle registration will be scrutinized closer by traffic stops or random check points. Arrests and deportations will only be increased causing abrupt fracturing of families and dependant crisis."

"You have a moral and ethical responsibility to the illegal alien community and must advise them to make preparations and arrangements to leave on their own. Perhaps when future immigration legislation is enacted they could return. A deportation will bar that for a decade at least."

"To leave them in desperate straits would be disastrous for everyone concerned. Please don't let that happen."

This is an excerpt of an open letter Dr. Duncan addressed to La Voz editor Andres Cruz and Kentucky Coalition for Comprehensive Immigration Reform President Freddy Peralta, neither of which could be reached immediately for comment.

No Kentuckians on Dem Platform Committee?

Just noticed that the 2008 Democratic Party Platform includes a suggestion that surely means no Kentuckians had input on the document. It states that "health insurance plans should accept all applicants and be prohibited from charging different prices based on pre-existing conditions."

This is exactly the set of circumstances that destroyed Kentucky's health insurance market in 1994.

Seems like one of our folks could have clued them in.

On the other hand, a bill that gave insurers more flexibility to avoid losses from mandated coverages of pre-existing conditions might have the opposite impact on the health insurance market.

Martin county man says "tax me more"

State Rep. David Floyd said back in 2007 he wanted to give people who wanted higher taxes a chance to pay into a "tax me more" fund.

House Budget Chairman Harry Moberly was not happy with the idea, though, so it didn't get anywhere.

That didn't stop Allan Parsley of Inez, who wants to raffle off a house and give $50,000 to his hometown. Looks like if he registers with the state as a charitable organization, he may be "allowed" to do just that.

Bully for him!

An economic issue you need to know about

While the nation's attention is turned to large financial firms crashing under the weight of their own bad financial decisions, presidential aspirants Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama are both making wild claims about having special powers to fix the economy.

But George Will has a succinct statement about an issue, in the form of a bill currently before Congress, on which the candidates disagree strongly and for which voters would do much better to pay attention to rather than trying to figure out who has a magic wand:

"The exquisitely misnamed Employee Free Choice Act would strip from workers their right to secret ballots in unionization elections. Instead, unions could use the "card check" system: Once a majority of a company's employees -- each person confronted one-on-one by a union organizer in an inherently coercive setting -- sign cards expressing consent, the union would be certified as the bargaining agent for all workers. Proving that the law's purpose is less to improve workers' conditions than to capture dues-payers for the unions, the law will forbid employers from discouraging unionization by giving "unilateral" -- not negotiated -- improvements in compensation and working conditions."

At a time in which our global competitiveness is challenged like never before, Americans have to ask themselves how much they really want to add another layer of costs onto the private sector.

Obama supports the Employee Free Choice Act and McCain does not.

You can read all of Will's column here.

Anne Northup still has two opponents

Despite taking the Libertarian Party candidate to court to try to get him thrown off the ballot, the Republican Party still has two opponents in November.

The ballot access issue is an interesting one. Here is a good take.

Empowering individuals? In Frankfort?

I wish I could be more optimistic about this.

The Governor's Working Group on Pension Reform Subcommittee on Defined Contributions meets tomorrow in the Capitol Annex room 171 at 1pm.

Giving state workers control over investing their own money just takes too much control away from the government for them to let the conversation get too far.

Might be some interesting video opportunities, though. See you there!

That isn't news, it's a KRS press release

The Lexington Herald Leader put together a story on Kentucky Retirement Systems that quotes two people who both said everything is just fine with their investment decisions, including both using the word "conservative" to describe the investment philosophy of the money that is supposed to fund public employee retirements.

"State Treasurer Todd Hollenbach, whose office monitors the more than $3 billion worth of funds the state's government has invested, said Kentucky does "hold a little bit of Lehman bonds.""

""But we're getting the payments on them, and we're not concerned about the situation," he said."

"Overall, the state's money has been "wisely and conservatively" invested, mostly in bonds, he said."

You mean they couldn't find anyone who disagreed with that rosy assessment?

Walter Mondale's economic plan returns

Sen. Barack Obama is having a great time trying to pass off our financial crisis as an economic crisis. They are related, sure, but they aren't the same thing. And McCain is right; the economy is strong.

And so, it is more than just interesting to note that when Obama's criticism gives way to prescriptions, has reverts to the well-worn calls for "change" and the special brand of "leadership" he keeps saying only he can provide.


It's very telling, then, that his ideas for "jumpstarting" the economy look an awful lot like the old, familiar tax and spend.

Courier-Journal Is CATSfused

I don’t get it.

First, the Courier-Journal editorializes that the results from the CATS school assessments are “ambiguous.”

Then – in the same very article – the paper says that there has been “enormous progress,” claiming many schools are making their goals, referring to goals set in CATS. How can we confidently know that if CATS is “ambiguous?”

So, which one is it, C-J? Are many schools making goals in a valid test program, or are the scores just ambiguous nonsense?

To help readers avoid the Courier’s “CATSfusion,” keep in mind that after 17 years of KERA, Kentucky’s most recent proficiency rates for math and reading on the federal National Assessment of Educational Progress run no higher than 33 percent and were a dismal 26 percent for eighth grade writing.

In fact, despite the fact that one out of five California students in the 2007 administration of that federal writing test was still learning English, and despite the fact that California’s student poverty rate now ties Kentucky’s, California scored a statistical tie with Kentucky for eighth grade writing!!! On a writing test only conducted in English!!!

How can anyone claim Kentucky made “enormous” progress when all we can show today is that maybe one out of four, perhaps at best one of three, students are actually on track in their studies? At Kentucky's current snail's pace of improvement, we are decades away from the point where anyone can claim "enormous" progress has occurred.

(Minor revisions added 17 Sep 08 at 0922)

Is it time to socialize Detroit?

Apparently, some in Congress thought we spent their August recess chanting "Bail, baby, Bail."

"The Club for Growth urges all members of Congress to vote "NO" on any bill that includes funding for the loan program designed to bail out automakers. This key vote will be part of our 2008 Congressional Scorecard."
"On the face of it, this bailout is fiscally irresponsible. But even worse, it would continue a very dangerous trend of socializing the risks inherent in a free economy."

The tough thing about rolling down this track is that taxpayers don't see this wasted money coming out of their own pockets. All the more reason to do away with automatic withholding of payroll taxes. If more people had to write checks to the government every month, they would be more inclined to care where the money ultimately went.

There goes my reputation with teachers union

A Lexington Herald Leader editorial today exemplifies the schizophrenic behavior of the people who control Kentucky's public education system.

"Without measurable goals, it's impossible to say how much progress is being made. Metrics are the foundation of accountability."

While this statement is true, it doesn't really belong in a discussion of manipulated CATS scores or the Prichard Committee of Academic Excellence, whose primary functions seem to be promoting more funding and less accountability for schools.

For example, the editorial and Prichard continue to promote a flawed Kentucky Long-term Policy Research Center study that was discredited by the Bluegrass Institute a year ago.

"Consider that Kentucky advanced from 43rd nationally in 1992 to 34th in 2005 on 11 key indicators compiled by the Kentucky Long-term Policy Research Center."

As usual, the real agenda quickly emerges.

"One measure in which Kentucky still lags is local and state spending per student in elementary and secondary schools, which is 80 percent of the national average."
"Kentucky spent $7,827 in state and local funds per student compared with 20th-ranked Virginia's $9,958 in 2005-06."

In other words, they want another $1.3 billion a year.

And then, as if on cue, here comes the "less accountability" part:

"When the Kentucky legislature mandated the ACT for all juniors, the hope was that early results would enable schools to fix weaknesses in teaching and curriculum and spark interest in higher education among kids who hadn't thought of college."
"Worthy goals. Someone should figure out how to measure whether it's working well enough to justify the $1 million-plus cost to taxpayers."

Propping up illegitimate data from CATS and squeezing out the more objective ACT, all while demanding a huge cash infusion. Go fish.

Keeping pressure on secretive Frankfort-crats

It's disappointing if not surprising to see no media discussion or even a press release about last week's E-transparency task force meeting in Frankfort.

Though Gov. Beshear seems disinterested in the process and Finance Secretary Jonathan Miller's efforts are foot-draggingly slow, some interesting points were raised. Discussion turned specific when comparing efforts of other states who have posted their spending on the internet for the public to see.

On the receiving end of positive comments were Kansas for its ease of use and explanatory notes, Missouri for the types of information included for taxpayers, and Oklahoma for its explanation of the budgeting process.

Secretary of State Trey Grayson has been the leading official on the transparency effort in the state and Rep. Jim DeCesare has pulled all the weight in the legislature.

More coffin nails in Beshear's tax increase plans

Each month, new revenue figures suggest more clearly that raising the state's cigarette tax is not going to save the state from the effects of its profligate ways. But then, it might give us a more vibrant black market like they have in Chicago and New York.

Barack's inconvenient economic reality

Sen. Barack Obama's campaign, when not focused on attacking Gov. Sarah Palin, seems to want to dig up the old Clinton playbook and run on the economy being worse here than in Burma.

And why not? Clinton's famous "it's the economy, stupid" campaign, in addition to President G.H.W. Bush's tax increase flip-flop and 19.7 million votes for Ross Perot, made Bill Clinton the President by convincing 43% of the electorate that we were in the worst economy in fifty years.

There was no evidence then, just as there is no evidence now, to support the doom-and-gloom.

In fact, the most recent Census data shows twenty five years of the rich get richer and the poor getting richer much faster.

"The new Census Bureau data on income and poverty reveal that many of the economic trends in this country are a lot more favorable than America's detractors seems to think. In 2007, overall real median family income increased to $50,233, up $600 from 2006. The real median income for intact families -- mother and father in the home -- rose to $78,000, an all-time high."

"Although incomes fell sharply in the U.S. after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 (and still haven't fully recovered), these latest statistics reflect a 25-year trend of upward economic mobility. More important, Barack Obama is wrong when he states on his campaign Web site that the economic policies started by Ronald Reagan have rewarded "wealth not work." Based on this false claim -- that the rich have benefited by economic growth while others have not -- he intends to raise tax rates on high-income individuals."

There is plenty to be concerned about in the American economy, but nothing really suggests a bigger, more expensive government will cure what ails us.

Credit due: David Hawpe, Louisville CJ

Usually when I get around to reading a David Hawpe column in the Louisville Courier Journal, the effort is rewarded with a nugget of silliness to write about derisively.

Thanks to Andy Hightower at the Kentucky Club for Growth, though, I know that when I get to Mr. Hawpe's latest offering, about pork spending in Frankfort, it will be an altogether different experience.

What a shame

Republicans can't take advantage of Gov. Steve Beshear and friends vomiting all over themselves about gas prices because they have long ago sold out to the same populist garbage.

Update for Whiner Nation

Phil Gramm is back with an interesting column in the Wall Street Journal explaining that the presidential candidates' economic policies have already been tried in various states:

"Mr. Obama would stimulate the economy by increasing federal spending. Mr. McCain would stimulate the economy by cutting the corporate tax rate. Mr. Obama would expand unionism by denying workers the right to a secret ballot on the decision to form a union, and would dramatically increase the minimum wage. Mr. Obama would also expand the role of government in the economy, and stop reforms in areas like tort abuse."

"The states have already tested the McCain and Obama programs, and the results are clear. We now face a national choice to determine if everything that has failed the families of Michigan, Ohio and Illinois will be imposed on a grander scale across the nation. In an appropriate twist of fate, Michigan and Ohio, the two states that have suffered the most from the policies that Mr. Obama proposes, have it within their power not only to reverse their own misfortunes but to spare the nation from a similar fate."

Wildest political claim of the silly season

Governor Steve Beshear while busily trying to save the state from too-low cigarette taxes and the hope of for a sustainable public employee benefits program, took time out today to try his hand at being a petroleum economist.

Love this rhetoric:

“I am outraged by the voracious practices of price gouging we are seeing,” said Gov, Beshear. “Today, I have taken an extraordinary step to protect the consumers of the commonwealth from these predators.”

I guess we will all feel safer under the protection of our daring governor as long as a real disaster doesn't lead to shortages -- albeit moderately priced shortages -- at Kentucky gas stations.

And since he says "we are seeing" all this "price gouging," Gov. Beshear shouldn't have any trouble pointing out at least one specific example. Right?

CATS Inflation – Evidence Too Obvious to Miss

We’ve known for some time that scores in Kentucky’s CATS school assessments have been getting more and more inflated every year. In fact, Reason #3 in one of our earliest publications shows the inflation started right at the beginning in 1999 during the change from the old KIRIS assessment to CATS.

Ever since, Bluegrass Institute comparisons of CATS to better quality testing data show more inflation occurring every year. For example, our comparison of CATS to the National Assessment of Educational Progress last year makes a strong case that CATS scoring was much easier in 2007 than it was in 1999.

Now, there is even evidence of CATS inflation yet to come, and this evidence comes from a surprising source – the Kentucky Department of Education.

On page 13 in the Briefing Packet for the 2008 CATS, a table titled “Accountability Index Ranges by School Level” shows that after an inflation-hiding correction was made (using those extremely controversial “Concordance Tables”), only 90 elementary schools got CATS scores of 100 or more in the official 2008 results. However, the table right below, which shows “Nonadjusted” scores, indicates that many more elementary schools, 162 of them, scored 100 or more before the inflation-hiding correction was applied.

So, stand by for more inflation in CATS. Next year, only the new and inflated nonadjusted scores are going to be used. Next year, all those schools that got lowered scores due to the inflation-hiding concordance tables won’t have that penalty to worry about. They will get the full benefit from the CATS’ ever more watered down scoring, and all 162 will be presented to us as magically reaching the score of 100 – the end goal for CATS in 2014.

So, get ready for CATS to show a remarkable 80% jump in just one year in the number of schools reaching the end goal target score. These schools won’t be much, if any better – they will just be made to look better.

Steve Beshear's idea of open government

Can't imagine why Gov. Steve Beshear wouldn't want anyone to come to Frankfort and watch him drag his feet on his promise to post state government spending on the internet:

Lawmaker report card sees notable progress

The Kentucky Club for Growth released this morning its annual report card of legislator votes for fiscal responsibility, heralding some improvements and providing interesting insight for political races this November and beyond.

Eleven House members scored above 70% on taxpayer-friendly votes, up from only two in 2007. Interestingly, in the Year of Sarah Palin, the top legislators in both chambers were women. Rep. Addia Wuchner and Sen. Katie Stine both garnered top rankings.

Sen. Brett Guthrie, a candidate for the open 2nd congressional district seat, scored 71% for a rank of 11th, ahead of his opponent in this November's race, Sen. David Boswell, who scored 54% and ranked 25th.

Next year's race for Speaker of the House will pit Speaker Jody Richards, who scored a 24% to rank 78th in the House, against Rep. Greg Stumbo whose 23% ranked him of 88th.

Joe Biden's math problem

Sen. Joe Biden is either lying about Sen. John McCain's health plan or he is really dumb.

At a campaign stop earlier this week in Missouri, Biden was attacking McCain:

"But taxing American workers' health care is not the answer, he said. Under McCain's plan, Biden said, a person earning $50,000 a year, with employer-provided health care worth $12,000 a year, would be subject to income taxes on all $62,000. Now, no taxes are levied on their health care benefits.McCain has been highlighting his proposed $5,000 a year tax credit to offset some of that tax hike, but Biden said that at least $7,000 would still be subject to the tax."

Biden's $7000 figure only makes sense at all if we are taxing income over $50,000 at 100%. Is there something in Obama's tax plan we don't know about?

A Teachers’ Union Acting Like a Professional Association??!!

Can it be – a teachers’ union actually spending money to improve the state of the art of teaching? Wow!

USA Today reports that the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) is going to spend $1 million to help school systems try things that their members have found actually work elsewhere – even including charter schools and merit pay! Wow!

We have to salute the AFT for stepping up to the plate to work like a real organization of professionals interested in improving the state of the profession rather than just limited scope, 1950’s industrial wage and benefits bargaining operations.

Actually, I know from personal experience that the AFT has a history in this area. Back when accountability testing was getting started in the early 1990s, this teacher organization put out a neat collection of some of the best test standards and questions that they had collected from around the world. It was called the “Setting World Class Standards” package, and mine still resides on my reference shelf.

Unfortunately, based on what happened to Kentucky’s assessment program, I doubt anyone in Frankfort ever saw the AFT’s standards gem. That’s because Kentucky is overrun by the “other” teachers’ union, a crowd that does seem rather firmly entrenched in that 1950s wage and benefits bargaining mindset.

For now, it looks like the AFT has the lock on how to conduct itself as a real organization of and for professionals. Maybe Kentucky’s teachers should look into this, and maybe they should be taking a vote to move to the AFT so they can enjoy the benefits and satisfaction of a real professional association, too.

CATS – The Nonsense Continues

I was looking over test scores for the Lexington area school system to get ready for Jim Waters’ appearance tomorrow morning on the Leland Conway show when another perfect example of the fouled up nonsense in our CATS assessments leaped off the pages at me.

The story begins with a much better testing program from the people who create the ACT college entrance test. This test, called EXPLORE, is given to all our eighth graders. According to our analysis of the recently released EXPLORE test results for Kentucky, the bottom three middle schools in the Fayette County system with their composite score and rank among Kentucky’s 320 middle schools that reported scores are:


Tates Creek Middle School – EXPLORE Composite of 13.9, Ranking 231

Crawford Middle School – EXPLORE Composite of 13.8, Ranking 245

Leestown Middle School – EXPLORE Composite of 13.1, Ranking 301.


Now, here is the nonsense. According to the new CATS “Media Packet” reports from the Kentucky Department of Education, Tates Creek and Crawford are in trouble in CATS and are in the “Assistance Level.”

But, much weaker performing Leestown got a “get out of jail free card” called a “Progressing” score in CATS. That means Leestown is immune from any sanctions. It also means that Leestown doesn’t get any extra state help to improve, however.

That’s a really smart system – Yeah, Right!!!

As we have said before, when it comes to the results from CATS, Go Figure!!!!

Seeing, hearing, speaking no transparency

Three months after Gov. Steve Beshear jumped on the spending transparency bandwagon to try to catch up with Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, his efforts to keep his promise to set up a web site including state spending figures seem to have ground to a halt once again.



It is particularly interesting that the Beshear administration is dragging its feet given that both men on his party's presidential ticket, Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Joe Biden voted for a spending transparency web site on the federal level.



As a matter of fact, Sen. John McCain voted for it, too. And Gov. Sarah Palin created Alaska's Checkbook Online. There is lots of help available to Beshear if he would only take it.

So what's the hold up, Governor Beshear?

Comparing CATS to Better Tests

The new CATS results positively beg comparison to the much better information we get from the EXPLORE and PLAN tests.

All Kentucky eighth and tenth grade students now take EXPLORE and PLAN, respectively. These better tests come from the highly respected organization that creates the ACT college entrance test and are closely aligned to that test. Subjects comparable to CATS include math, reading and science.

Like the ACT, EXPLORE and PLAN provide information about how many students reach “Benchmark” scores that indicate students are on track to earn passing grades in their first college courses. In addition, because the demands of better paying non-college jobs have increased, the ACT says that many employers for those better paying jobs now want exactly the same skills that are needed to succeed in college. So, the Benchmark scores are more like measures of what is needed for a decent adult life. Thus, it isn’t out of line to say that the Benchmarks can fairly be considered a real measure of proficiency. And, that opens the door to compare the percentages of students reaching EXPLORE and PLAN benchmarks to the percentages that CATS says are “Proficient” or more.

Here is a quick rundown of what we found when we did those comparisons

Middle Schools (2006-07 Percent / 2007-08 Percent)

Math
Meets EXPLORE Benchmark – 26% / 27%
Meets CATS Benchmark – 52% / 57%
Difference – 26% / 30%

Reading
Meets EXPLORE Benchmark – 35% / 33%
Meets CATS Benchmark – 66% / 67%
Difference – 31% / 34%

Science
Meets EXPLORE Benchmark – 11% / 10%
Meets CATS Benchmark – 56% / 60%
Difference – 45% / 50%

In both reading and science, the percentage meeting the EXPLORE benchmark went down this year while CATS proficiency rates increased. In middle school math, while the percent reaching the benchmark went up slightly, the rise in the CATS proficiency rate was much larger.

The differences in proficiency rates from 2006-07 to 2007-08 increased for all subjects, indicating that CATS scoring for middle schools got even easier this year.

High Schools (2006-07 Percent / 2007-08 Percent)

Math
Meets Explore Benchmark – 23% / 21%
Meets CATS Benchmark – 39% / 39%
Difference – 16% / 18%

Reading
Meets Explore Benchmark – 41% / 40%
Meets CATS Benchmark – 60% / 60%
Difference – 19% / 20%

Science
Meets Explore Benchmark – 15% / 15%
Meets CATS Benchmark – 42% / 41%
Difference – 27% / 26%

First of all, notice that the differences in claimed proficiency rates for all subjects are much lower for high schools, indicating the high school CATS academic tests (known as the Kentucky Core Content Tests), while still inflated, are much better aligned with real world needs than the middle school tests.

Also notice that except for science, there was a small creep in grade inflation even in the high school CATS scores as shown by the increase in the differences in proficiency rates from 2006-07 to 2007-08.

Overall, several things are clear. CATS scoring is generally getting inflated, something we have shown previously using other tests.

Furthermore, CATS scores of “Proficiency” clearly mean something less demanding in middle school than in high school. Thus, it isn’t surprising that high schools show the worst performance on CATS. This does not mean that middle schools are doing a better job. It just means middle school CATS is even more inflated than the high school CATS tests.

The smart money says...

For the first time since January, the Intrade prediction market today says Sen. John McCain is more likely than Sen. Barack Obama to be the next President of the United States.

CATS Data Conflicts with Louisville’s Claims from Every1Reads

The new CATS school accountability data is out from the Kentucky Department of Education, and right away the controversy about CATS has been raised to a new level. The brouhaha jumped right out as I read Toni Konz’s first article in the Louisville Courier-Journal.

Toni reports that Jefferson County schools, “experienced a 2-point decrease in reading scores at elementary and middle schools and a 1.5-point decrease at high schools.” That’s right – a decline across the board.

Now this stands in very strong opposition to recent claims from Louisville’s “Every1Reads” program that there has been progress in reading in Kentucky’s largest school system.

What makes the discrepancy in claims more amazing is that CATS scoring became even more inflated last year.

If anything, that inflationary process should boost CATS reading scores because they are not adjusted with the now rather infamous “concordance tables” and are only reported in a format that uses the newly inflated scoring scales.

Anyway, it’s really no surprise, as Konz reports, that Jefferson County superintendent Sheldon Berman is upset, claiming, “These differences represent anomalies in the testing data that as of yet cannot be explained and raise questions about the data and how (changes in the test) may or may not have affected the outcomes.”

Welcome to the club, Dr. Berman. We don’t understand how anyone can figure out anything with such a constantly changing, ever more inflated testing system. We’ve said so for years.

We’ll have more to say on that inflation picture shortly, so keep checking back.

State revenue still not falling, where's the media?

It seemed unusual last month when the media's monthly state revenue watch's abrupt halt coincided with continued rising revenues.

Well, the much-predicted state revenue crater has continued to not materialize. And the media still isn't talking about it.

Today Budget Director Mary Lassiter reported August General Fund revenues increased $44.7 million or 7.6% over last August.

Interestingly, Lottery revenues increased 3.7% even after the KLC was forced to cut marketing expenses slightly. Maybe we should cut some more of their advertising budget.

In the face of rising revenues, once again, straightening out any budget shortfall calls for less spending rather than more revenue.

Kudos to Cucinello!

WHAS 840's Francene Cucinello deserves a big Bluegrass Institute thank you for seeing through the CATS spin this morning. She specifically recognized Senate President David Williams for standing up to the teachers union on school assessments, calling CATS "detrimental to our children's future."

You got it, Francene!

Knee deep in media bias

Commonwealth Accountability Testing System scores are out and, if you get all your news from the Lexington Herald Leader and the Louisville Courier Journal you would never know that we are inflating our way to success with our school test scores.

In fact, you wouldn't even know anything about the CATS' wastefulness, fraud, or the effort to get rid of the whole mess and go legit if you depended on the big newspapers.

In fact, the big media refuses to even show up for the discussion about eliminating or at least improving CATS to better serve students.

Cheerleading the status quo in government is one solid reason for the growing credibility gap in Kentucky's mainstream media:
"Virtually all Lexington schools improve state achievement scores"

"Most Kentucky schools on track toward goals"

Kentucky's abysmal college remediation rate continues to be a more reliable indicator of our return-on-investment in K-12. Weak-kneed coverage like this does nothing but perpetuate the same "send us more money and we will do better" mentality in Frankfort.

Spinning Corbin's white elephant

Cliff Clinger was in Corbin yesterday extolling virtues of the budget-busting Corbin Expo Center the Bluegrass Institute has been warning you about for years.

Get used to this kind of language, courtesy of the Corbin Times Tribune:

"...to General Manager Cliff Clinger, the expo center is far from just an expensive building — it’s an investment in the community."

"Clinger spoke about the “huge economic development factors” that will come with the completion of the expo center in March 2009."

So far we have cost overruns, bonded indebtedness, tax increases, and lots of flowery language for this boondoggle. But this one was my favorite:

"“This is a community project. This is really something that is going to help the entire community. So it’s not just about us on the hill... taking from you... This is also about what we are bringing to you,” Clinger said."

Like flipping a Winnebago on the highway

Earlier this year, fifty House members in Frankfort voted to raise taxes on Kentuckians because they had overspent state revenues. Cooler heads prevailed, but doesn't this kind of remind you of the lady who spilled hot coffee on her lap and then sued McDonald's or the thief who locked himself in his victim's garage and sued for mental anguish after the homeowner released him?

If it does, then you will really get a kick out of reading this.

Remember this outrageous collection of stupidity when Gov. Steve Beshear calls legislators back to Frankfort after the November elections to try to raise taxes on you again.

More stories for Kentucky's media to ignore

In the midst of the federal mortgage bailouts, readers may forget that Kentucky has a few failed programs taxpayers will be dumping money into for years to come.

Today, the people who run the money-losing Kentucky's Affordable Pre-paid Tuition program will receive the actuarial report showing how much more bailing needs to be done there. It should be made public in the next few weeks.

The Public Pension Working Group continues to go through the motions in Frankfort as lost dollars drain taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars more.

And the CATS Task Force continues to pretend to evaluate our learning assessment efforts in schools.

Need any more proof government is too big?

The Louisville Courier Journal's complacency with the bankruptcy and government takeover of mortgage behemoths Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should tell you everything you need to know:

"The federal government did what it had to do over the weekend when it took over the troubled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lending institutions...But doing nothing was not an option. As costly as this remedy is, doing nothing could have cost us even more in the future."

Color me skeptical. What we have done by bailing out these quasi-government agencies is to allow bureaucrats to pick winners and losers. Why is it preferable to allow people and entities who have overpaid for houses to keep them with subsidies from others when those others might otherwise profit from buying those houses for market prices?

This is what we do on the state level when we give tax money taken from existing employers to entice new employers to set up shop in Kentucky. Where is the evidence that this money is well-spent? And why do we think this works better when applied selectively than it would if we just lowered taxes for everyone?

The gathering storm of bank failures should now turn attention to the government backing for reckless lending practices through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The FDIC should be shut down immediately, before that gets any more expensive for taxpayers.

And in Kentucky, we should stop offering tax money to recruit businesses to come into the state and compete with those who are already here.

Wonder where Beshear is on his list?

Club for Growth President Pat Toomey pays Gov. Sarah Palin a very high compliment when he ranks her as good as South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford on fiscal issues.

I'd like to see the Club's ranking of all the states' leaders. He would surely have a lot of fun with Beshear, who got into office promising transparency, no new taxes, gambling, and claiming -- and subsequently confirming -- he has no idea what to do about public employee benefits.

Buying your legislator a golden parachute?

When Governing Magazine wanted to write an article about retroactively awarded pension benefits, they went to Fullerton, California to find something to get worked up about.

They might have mentioned a three-year old law in Kentucky that allows legislators to go to work in the executive branch at a much higher salary after serving in the House or Senate and earn pension benefits as if they have been earning the higher salary all along.

If you are looking for a fabulous example of government waste in Kentucky that members of both parties are clinging to like their lives depend on it, just click here.

Don't just criticize spending

The Lexington Herald Leader did a nice job reporting on borrow-and-spend excesses surrounding Kentucky's courthouses.

Now it would be great to see the editorial board pile on by pushing for Gov. Beshear's E-Transparency task force to get moving toward providing real-time information about government spending and contracts.

Come on, guys. You can do it.

Value of nothing

Oscar Wilde famously said "A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing."

Pondering the truthfulness of this might have helped the Louisville Courier Journal in today's effort to discuss the price of health insurance without addressing the value of it.

The article bemoans the absence of universal health insurance on the federal level and lauds state efforts to subsidize premiums, while completely ignoring those who have made efforts to really bring down costs.

Hello? Sarah Palin, anyone?

Taxpayer subsidies are a very poor substitute for efforts to improve consumer value. Why is that so hard for some people to understand?