Lots of kids get left behind after graduation in Jefferson County

WAVE-3 TV reports that thousands of Jefferson County students are graduated from high school in 2010 and headed on to other life pursuits such as higher education or the workforce.

What WAVE-3 missed is the fact that new data from the Kentucky Department of Education shows that a chunk of last year’s Jefferson County graduates reported they didn’t head anywhere after high school – not to college, not to the military, not to tech school, not to the workforce.

And, we don’t know for sure what happened to additional thousands of Jefferson County students who simply dropped out before getting a high school diploma, but it’s a good bet most of them are in even more dire straights.

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WHAT!!! No high school graduation rate data?!!!

Why Not???!!!

The Kentucky Department of Education (KDE) just released new non-academic data for the state – sort of.

The problem is the most important information – namely Kentucky’s very first high school graduation rate data using a credible formula instead of inflated nonsense – is NOT included.

The news release excuses: “to ensure data quality and integrity, a thorough review of school and district graduation rates is being implemented. Graduation rate data will be released in August 2011.”

I’m sorry, but that excuse does not wash.

When you look at Kentucky’s deplorable history concerning graduation and dropout reporting, the KDE comes across as seriously unable to implement something that has been a known requirement for three years.

Along the way, the KDE unfortunately creates an impression that it is standing in the way of public transparency on an absolutely critical set of education data – data that is currently a hot discussion item even with the governor’s wife.

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Governor's dropout proposal falls short of graduating

Gov. Beshear's desire to force kids to remain in school until age 18 gets a failing grade for many reasons. It fails to consider: the dramatic cost involved, the effect it would have on students who actually want to be in school and the fact that similar policies in other states generally do not result in dramatic increases in graduation rates.

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National dropout conference meets as Kentucky debates dropout age

Too many Kentucky high schools graduate too few

Data implies Age 18 dropout age minimum doesn’t work

As our legislature debates the merits of raising the minimum high school dropout age in Kentucky from 16 to 18, a national conference is meeting to discuss the serious problem of dropouts across the nation. Along with other materials, a conference team from The Everyone Graduates Center has provided an analysis that has charts showing how many ‘Dropout Factories’ are found in each state. The disturbing finding, as of 2009 Kentucky had 22 high schools which meet the Johns Hopkins University’s criteria of less than 60 percent graduation success to be labeled as ‘Dropout Factories.’ The same web data provides some interesting new information regarding the attempt to raise Kentucky’s dropout age to 18. Earlier, I assembled a quick study in a blog that looked at trends in federally reported Averaged Freshman Graduation Rates for states that had an Age 18 minimum dropout age in place for at least four years. My study showed few of the 15 states with at least four years of Age 18 experience had a trend in graduation rate improvement that even matched the national rate. Now, using some of the data from The Everyone Graduates Center and Johns Hopkins University, I assembled the tables below which shows how Kentucky ranks for dropout factory performance against the same 15 states that have already shifted their minimum dropout age to 18. This first graph shows the percentage of high schools in the Age 18 states that are dropout factories. The schools with the lowest percentage of dropout factories rank at the top in this listing. Notice that even without a current age 18 limitation, Kentucky already ranks around the middle in this listing. Given the large variation in graduation rate performance shown in this first table, it is clear that a minimum dropout age of 18 provides no guarantee of good performance with the Johns Hopkins data. We can also look at the percentage of students in each state that are trapped in dropout factories. This next table looks at all students. On this metric, Kentucky looks even better compared to the states that already have moved to age 18. Finally, here is a similar table for minority students. Once again, Kentucky is already doing better than a notable number of the age 18 dropout minimum states. So, why would we want to emulate the general performance of Age 18 states? We already do better than many of them. The new Johns Hopkins data adds to the earlier evidence from the National Center for Education Statistics on Averaged Freshman Graduation Rates that I discussed in the earlier blog. The data indicates that an Age 18 dropout restriction, by itself, does not guarantee good graduation rates. Does Kentucky have a dropout problem? YOU BET! Will trapping kids in school until age 18 help? Probably not. Technical Note: You can access the data used to assemble the tables above by logging on here. This brings up a web page with the Kentucky data. Click on the graph in the lower right of the section near the top of the web page to find the graph showing “Number and Percent of High Schools with Weak and High Promoting Power Ratios.” To access the other states’ data, scroll to the bottom of the Kentucky page, where a US map allows selection of other state profiles. Then, click on the charts for that state to select the graph showing “Number and Percent of High Schools with Weak and High Promoting Power Ratios.”

Are we about to create more school “dumping grounds” for students and staff?

With action pending in both houses of the Kentucky legislature to create more alternative schools and maybe raise the minimum dropout age to 18 as a way to fight high dropout rates, recent comments from Education Commissioner Terry Holliday provide a warning that just creating these schools isn’t enough.

Holliday told Ryan Alessi at cn2 on Monday that the state needs a law to prevent alternative schools from just becoming dumping grounds for students and even teachers.

Apparently, Holliday has seen the evidence of this problem already, but he feels powerless to act.

Well, somebody better act, especially if we are going to create a lot more potential for abuse, which would most definitely include the taxpayer, if all we wind up doing is creating age 18 dropouts instead of age 16 ones.

Someone else has figured the high school dropout rate business out

"Clearly no one wants to talk about this, but in Kentucky's current assessment and accountability system schools actually benefit from young people dropping out rather than having them perform at a low rate on the tests," he said. "No one wants to admit that's a problem, but it is a problem."

Terry Brooks, executive director of Kentucky Youth Advocates

Quoted in “Kentucky slips in six key areas,” Messenger-Inquirer, Owensboro, June 12, 2008 as provided by Kentucky School Boards Association News Service (subscription required).

When Kentucky's CATS assessment starts to really penalize schools for dropouts (right now, the penalty is trivial), maybe this will stop. By the way, Mr. Brooks, I have criticized this problem in CATS for years. Glad you are now on board on this important issue.